Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 43.558855 47.798502 52.513632 58.196026 64.926670 72.733718 8.260967e+01
2025-02-23 37.074713 42.508835 49.013932 57.546460 68.720792 83.294213 1.045636e+02
2025-03-02 33.066984 38.911111 46.225988 56.352265 70.543279 90.688188 1.236090e+02
2025-03-09 30.320603 36.381634 44.230475 55.568357 72.368281 98.038119 1.446714e+02
2025-03-16 27.681544 33.657642 41.579549 53.371530 71.568241 100.973033 1.591836e+02
2025-03-23 26.831926 33.184068 41.864122 55.311082 77.252492 115.681005 2.025748e+02
2025-03-30 25.416478 31.793927 40.689829 54.858405 78.920088 123.686897 2.364801e+02
2025-04-06 24.091729 30.418194 39.393571 54.023943 79.736001 130.216664 2.712553e+02
2025-04-13 22.605612 28.711378 37.468128 51.958661 78.009159 131.064804 2.908089e+02
2025-04-20 22.259877 28.612445 37.926409 53.826034 83.814247 150.015632 3.883472e+02
2025-04-27 21.842405 28.371812 38.133793 55.272938 89.075043 169.833239 5.244899e+02
2025-05-04 21.360975 27.999417 38.094913 56.267439 93.599748 189.831179 7.161885e+02
2025-05-11 20.596436 27.192753 37.361886 56.041995 95.743324 205.094595 9.518870e+02
2025-05-18 19.828159 26.343604 36.508864 55.521319 97.194166 219.407124 1.286387e+03
2025-05-25 19.014736 25.379704 35.398058 54.388845 96.998482 228.277883 1.665230e+03
2025-06-01 18.337839 24.594854 34.535022 53.648083 97.627554 240.802136 2.357929e+03
2025-06-08 17.477424 23.483570 33.058655 51.569746 94.579169 237.670573 2.665108e+03
2025-06-15 17.341489 23.511632 33.520753 53.404819 101.957099 283.426991 9.289927e+03
2025-06-22 16.846454 22.939711 32.907759 52.976717 103.221060 303.051119 3.253198e+04
2025-06-29 16.327736 22.307800 32.154642 52.187254 103.342412 317.441135 1.125341e+06
2025-07-06 15.661328 21.412545 30.895735 50.231631 99.818894 309.700787 NaN
2025-07-13 15.590353 21.485125 31.357311 51.999959 107.599181 377.054924 NaN
2025-07-20 15.458964 21.450583 31.621700 53.368750 114.622116 454.402947 NaN